Cross-scale ensemble projections of dissolved organic carbon dynamics in boreal forest streams     

Stephen K. Oni  Martyn N. Futter  Claudia Teutschbein  Hjalmar Laudon 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(9-10):2305-2321

Climate is an important driver of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics in boreal catchments characterized by networks of streams within forest-wetland landscape mosaics. In this paper, we assess how climate change may affect stream DOC concentrations ([DOC]) and export from boreal forest streams with a multi-model ensemble approach. First, we apply an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) to project soil temperatures and stream-flows. These data are then used to drive two biogeochemical models of surface water DOC: (1) The Integrated Catchment model for Carbon (INCA-C), a detailed process-based model of DOC operating at the catchment scale, and (2) The Riparian Integration Model (RIM), a simple dynamic hillslope scale model of stream [DOC]. All RCMs project a consistent increase in temperature and precipitation as well as a shift in spring runoff peaks from May to April. However, they present a considerable range of possible future runoff conditions with an ensemble median increase of 31 % between current and future (2061–2090) conditions. Both biogeochemical models perform well in describing the dynamics of present-day stream [DOC] and fluxes, but disagree in their future projections. Here, we assess possible futures in three boreal catchments representative of forest, mire and mixed landscape elements. INCA-C projects a wider range of stream [DOC] due to its temperature sensitivity, whereas RIM gives consistently larger inter-annual variation and a wider range of exports due to its sensitivity to hydrological variations. The uncertainties associated with modeling complex processes that control future DOC dynamics in boreal and temperate catchments are still the main limitation to our understanding of DOC mechanisms under changing climate conditions. Novel, currently overlooked or unknown drivers may appear that will present new challenges to modelling DOC in the future.  相似文献   

Economic and subsistence values of the standing stocks of seagrass fisheries: Potential benefits of no-fishing marine protected area management     

Richard K.F. Unsworth  Leanne C. Cullen  Jules N. Pretty  David J. Smith  James J. Bell 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2010,53(5-6):218-224

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Impacts of uncertain river flow data on rainfall‐runoff model calibration and discharge predictions     

Hilary McMillan  Jim Freer  Florian Pappenberger  Tobias Krueger  Martyn Clark 《水文研究》2010,24(10):1270-1284

In order to quantify total error affecting hydrological models and predictions, we must explicitly recognize errors in input data, model structure, model parameters and validation data. This paper tackles the last of these: errors in discharge measurements used to calibrate a rainfall‐runoff model, caused by stage–discharge rating‐curve uncertainty. This uncertainty may be due to several combined sources, including errors in stage and velocity measurements during individual gaugings, assumptions regarding a particular form of stage–discharge relationship, extrapolation of the stage–discharge relationship beyond the maximum gauging, and cross‐section change due to vegetation growth and/or bed movement. A methodology is presented to systematically assess and quantify the uncertainty in discharge measurements due to all of these sources. For a given stage measurement, a complete PDF of true discharge is estimated. Consequently, new model calibration techniques can be introduced to explicitly account for the discharge error distribution. The method is demonstrated for a gravel‐bed river in New Zealand, where all the above uncertainty sources can be identified, including significant uncertainty in cross‐section form due to scour and re‐deposition of sediment. Results show that rigorous consideration of uncertainty in flow data results in significant improvement of the model's ability to predict the observed flow. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Ice caps existed throughout the Lateglacial Interstadial in northern Scotland     

Tom Bradwell  Derek Fabel  Martyn Stoker  Hannah Mathers  Lanny McHargue  John Howe 《第四纪科学杂志》2008,23(5):401-407

We constrain, in detail, fluctuations of two former ice caps in NW Scotland with multibeam seabed surveys, geomorphological mapping and cosmogenic ¹⁰Be isotope analyses. We map a continuous sequence of 40 recessional moraines stretching from ～10 km offshore to the Wester Ross mountains. Surface‐exposure ages from boulders on moraine ridges in Assynt and the Summer Isles region show that substantial, dynamic, ice caps existed in NW Scotland between 13 and 14 ka BP. We interpret this as strong evidence that large active glaciers probably survived throughout the Lateglacial Interstadial, and that during the Older Dryas period (ca. 14 ka BP) ice caps in NW Scotland were thicker and considerably more extensive than in the subsequent Younger Dryas Stadial. By inference, we suggest that Lateglacial ice‐cap oscillations in Scotland reflect the complex interplay between changing temperature and precipitation regimes during this climatically unstable period (ca. 15–11 ka BP). © Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) copyright 2008. Reproduced with the permission of NERC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Lithospheric Electrical Structure across the Eastern Segment of the Altyn Tagh Fault on the Northern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau     

ZHANG Letian  YE Gaofeng  JIN Sheng  WEI Wenbo  Martyn UNSWORTH  Alan G. JONES  JING Jianen  DONG Hao  XIE Chengliang  Florian LE PAPE  Jan VOZAR 《《地质学报》英文版》2015,89(1):90-104

Project INDEPTH (InterNational DEep Profiling of Tibet and the Himalaya) is an interdisciplinary program designed to develop a better understanding of deep structures and mechanics of the Tibetan Plateau. As a component of magnetotelluric (MT) work in the 4th phase of the project, MT data were collected along a profile that crosses the eastern segment of the Altyn Tagh fault on the northern margin of the plateau. Time series data processing used robust algorithms to give high quality responses. Dimensionality analysis showed that 2D approach is only valid for the northern section of the profile. Consequently, 2D inversions were only conducted for the northern section, and 3D inversions were conducted on MT data from the whole profile. From the 2D inversion model, the eastern segment of the Altyn Tagh fault only appears as a crustal structure, which suggests accommodation of strike slip motion along the Altyn Tagh fault by thrusting within the Qilian block. A large-scale off-profile conductor within the mid-lower crust of the Qilian block was revealed from the 3D inversion model, which is probably correlated with the North Qaidam thrust belt. Furthermore, the unconnected conductors from the 3D inversion model indicate that deformations in the study area are generally localized.  相似文献   

Fe and O isotope composition of meteorite fusion crusts: Possible natural analogues to chondrule formation?          下载免费PDF全文

Dominik C. Hezel  Graeme M. Poole  Jack Hoyes  Barry J. Coles  Catherine Unsworth  Nina Albrecht  Caroline Smith  Mark Rehkämper  Andreas Pack  Matthew Genge  Sara S. Russell 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2015,50(2):229-242

Meteorite fusion crust formation is a brief event in a high‐temperature (2000–12,000 K) and high‐pressure (2–5 MPa) regime. We studied fusion crusts and bulk samples of 10 ordinary chondrite falls and 10 ordinary chondrite finds. The fusion crusts show a typical layering and most contain vesicles. All fusion crusts are enriched in heavy Fe isotopes, with δ⁵⁶Fe values up to +0.35‰ relative to the solar system mean. On average, the δ⁵⁶Fe of fusion crusts from finds is +0.23‰, which is 0.08‰ higher than the average from falls (+0.15‰). Higher δ⁵⁶Fe in fusion crusts of finds correlate with bulk chondrite enrichments in mobile elements such as Ba and Sr. The δ⁵⁶Fe signature of meteorite fusion crusts was produced by two processes (1) evaporation during atmospheric entry and (2) terrestrial weathering. Fusion crusts have either the same or higher δ¹⁸O (0.9–1.5‰) than their host chondrites, and the same is true for Δ¹⁷O. The differences in bulk chondrite and fusion crust oxygen isotope composition are explained by exchange of oxygen between the molten surface of the meteorites with the atmosphere and weathering. Meteorite fusion crust formation is qualitatively similar to conditions of chondrule formation. Therefore, fusion crusts may, at least to some extent, serve as a natural analogue to chondrule formation processes. Meteorite fusion crust and chondrules exhibit a similar extent of Fe isotope fractionation, supporting the idea that the Fe isotope signature of chondrules was established in a high‐pressure environment that prevented large isotope fractionations. The exchange of O between a chondrule melt and an ¹⁶O‐poor nebula as the cause for the observed nonmass dependent O isotope compositions in chondrules is supported by the same process, although to a much lower extent, in meteorite fusion crusts.  相似文献   

Turbidity-discharge hysteresis in a meso-scale catchment: The importance of intermediate scale events     

Emma E. Lannergård  Jens Fölster  Martyn N. Futter 《水文研究》2021,35(12):e14435

In-situ sensors for riverine water quality monitoring are a powerful tool to describe temporal variations when efficient and informative analyses are applied to the large quantities of data collected. Concentration-discharge hysteresis patterns observed during storm events give insights into headwater catchment processes. However, the applicability of this approach to larger catchments is less well known. Here, we evaluate the potential for high-frequency turbidity-discharge (Q) hysteresis patterns to give insights into processes operating in a meso-scale (722 km²) northern mixed land use catchment. As existing event identification methods did not work, we developed a new, objective method based on hydrograph characteristics and identified 76 events for further analysis. Qualitative event analysis identified three recurring patterns. Events with low mean Q (≤ 2 m³/s) often showed short-term, quasi-periodic turbidity variation, to a large extent disconnected from Q variation. High max Q events (≥15 m³/s) were often associated with spring flood or snowmelt, and showed a disconnection between turbidity and Q. Intermediate Q events (mean Q: 2–11 m³/s) were the most informative when applying hysteresis indexes, since changes in turbidity and Q were actually connected. Hysteresis indexes could be calculated on a subset of 60 events, which showed heterogeneous responses: 38% had a clockwise response, 12% anticlockwise, 12% figure eight (clockwise–anticlockwise), 10% reverse figure eight (anticlockwise–clockwise) and 28% showed a complex response. Clockwise hysteresis responses were associated with the wetter winter and spring seasons. Generally, changes in Q and turbidity were small during anticlockwise hysteresis events. Precipitation often influenced figure-eight patterns, while complex patterns often occurred during summer low flows. Analysis of intermediate Q events can improve process understanding of meso-scale catchments and possibly aid in choosing appropriate management actions for targeting a specific observed pattern.  相似文献   

Seismic‐stratigraphic constraints on the age of the Faroe Islands Basalt Group,Faroe–Shetland region,Northeast Atlantic Ocean     

Jana lavsdttir  Martyn S. Stoker  Lars O. Boldreel  Morten Sparre Andersen   luva R. Eidesgaard 《Basin Research》2019,31(5):841-865

Lower Palaeogene extrusive igneous rocks of the Faroe Islands Basalt Group (FIBG) dominate the Faroese continental margin, with flood basalts created at the time of breakup and separation from East Greenland extending eastwards into the Faroe‐Shetland Basin. This volcanic succession was emplaced in connection with the opening of the NE Atlantic; however, consensus on the age and duration of volcanism remains lacking. On the Faroe Islands, the FIBG comprises four main basaltic formations (the pre‐breakup Lopra and Beinisvørð formations, and the syn‐breakup Malinstindur and Enni formations) locally separated by thin intrabasaltic sedimentary and/or volcaniclastic units. Offshore, the distribution of these formations remains ambiguous. We examine the stratigraphic framework of these rocks on the Faroese continental margin combining onshore (published) outcrop information with offshore seismic‐reflection and well data. Our results indicate that on seismic‐reflection profiles, the FIBG can be informally divided into lower and upper seismic‐stratigraphic packages separated by the strongly reflective A‐horizon. The Lower FIBG comprises the Lopra and Beinisvørð formations; the upper FIBG includes the Malinstindur and Enni formations. The strongly reflecting A‐horizon is a consequence of the contrast in properties of the overlying Malinstindur and underlying Beinisvørð formations. Onshore, the A‐horizon is an erosional surface, locally cutting down into the Beinisvørð Formation; offshore, we have correlated the A‐horizon with the Flett unconformity, a highly incised, subaerial unconformity, within the juxtaposed and interbedded sedimentary fill of the Faroe‐Shetland Basin. We refer to this key regional boundary as the A‐horizon/Flett unconformity. The formation of this unconformity represents the transition from the pre‐breakup to the syn‐breakup phase of ocean margin development in the Faroe–Shetland region. We examine the wider implications of this correlation considering existing stratigraphic models for the FIBG, discussing potential sources of uncertainty in the correlation of the lower Palaeogene succession across the Faroe–Shetland region, and implications for the age and duration of the volcanism.  相似文献   

Catchment properties,function, and conceptual model representation: is there a correspondence?          下载免费PDF全文

Fabrizio Fenicia  Dmitri Kavetski  Hubert H. G. Savenije  Martyn P. Clark  Gerrit Schoups  Laurent Pfister  Jim Freer 《水文研究》2014,28(4):2451-2467

This study investigates the possible correspondence between catchment structure, as represented by perceptual hydrological models developed from fieldwork investigations, and mathematical model structures, selected on the basis of reproducing observed catchment hydrographs. Three Luxembourgish headwater catchments are considered, where previous fieldwork suggested distinct flow‐generating mechanisms and hydrological dynamics. A set of lumped conceptual model structures are hypothesized and implemented using the SUPERFLEX framework. Following parameter calibration, the model performance is examined in terms of predictive accuracy, quantification of uncertainty, and the ability to reproduce the flow–duration curve signature. Our key research question is whether differences in the performance of the conceptual model structures can be interpreted based on the dominant catchment processes suggested from fieldwork investigations. For example, we propose that the permeable bedrock and the presence of multiple aquifers in the Huewelerbach catchment may explain the superior performance of model structures with storage elements connected in parallel. Conversely, model structures with serial connections perform better in the Weierbach and Wollefsbach catchments, which are characterized by impermeable bedrock and dominated by lateral flow. The presence of threshold dynamics in the Weierbach and Wollefsbach catchments may favour nonlinear models, while the smoother dynamics of the larger Huewelerbach catchment were suitably reproduced by linear models. It is also shown how hydrologically distinct processes can be effectively described by the same mathematical model components. Major research questions are reviewed, including the correspondence between hydrological processes at different levels of scale and how best to synthesize the experimentalist's and modeller's perspectives. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Adjacent catchments with similar patterns of land use and climate have markedly different dissolved organic carbon concentration and runoff dynamics   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Stephen K. Oni  Martyn N. Futter  Lewis A. Molot  Peter J. Dillon 《水文研究》2014,28(3):1436-1449

Temporal patterns in specific runoff, dissolved organic carbon concentrations [DOC] and fluxes were examined during two periods: 1994–1997 (period 1) and 2007–2009 (period 2) in five adjacent tributary catchments of Lake Simcoe, the largest lake in southern Ontario, Canada. The catchments displayed similar patterns of land use change with increases in urbanization (5–16%) and forest cover (0.2–4%) and declines in agriculture (4–8%) between 1994 and 2008. Climate in the catchments was similar; temperature increased slightly, but no significant change in precipitation was observed. Despite similar pattern of climate and land use, runoff responses and tributary [DOC] were different across the catchments. Following a very dry year (i.e. 1999), runoff increased steadily until the end of record. We observed increased variability in tributary [DOC] and higher DOC exports in period 2. This led to ~10% increase in [DOC] and a 13% increase in flux between the two study periods. Between the two periods, [DOC] increased by 15% in spring and 25% in summer, whereas flux increased by 17% in spring and 48% in summer. [DOC] was consistently higher in the growing (summer + autumn) than the dormant (winter + spring, minus spring melt months) seasons, but no unique pattern or simple linear flow/concentrations relationships existed. This suggests complex spatial and temporal pattern to runoff controls on DOC and flow dynamics in adjacent catchments. We therefore caution against extrapolating from monitored to unmonitored catchments. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献